What should be good news about global warming, is getting environmentalists very worried. Nature magazine just released a study by German climate scientists, stating:
Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
The danger is that such short-term trends will be taken out of context and perceived as license to ease up on the climate fight. According to Noel Keenlyside, climate researcher at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences who led the study:
“The natural variations change climate on this timescale and policymakers may either think mitigation is working or that there is no global warming at all. . . Natural changes as opposed to human causes may play a bigger role in the short term . . . This is important because policies are made in the short term. Our results show we might not have as much change in climate over the next 10 years.”
Back in January, Real Climate had a great article explaining the difference between short term and long term temperature trends, and why we should never lose sight of the reality of global warming as a long term problem. The following chart from the NASA website tells the story:
Next time a climate skeptic gives you a hard time, show him – or her – the facts . . .
La Marguerite 
Ahhh, the good old convenient starting-right-after-the-little-ice-age graph. Funny how things warm after ice ages, or is that another “misinterpretation”.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
And isn’t this a strange coincidence?
Well, if the fact they relate is true ( and it must be, since Nature is not used to jokes… ), it is a chance for us to do our best to mitigate climate change during this period.
And basically, if the GLOBAL temperature doesn’t increase, it doesn’t mean that locally it won’t heat up.
Example, the Arctic and Antarctic :
http://www.elrst.com/2008/04/25/to-the-wwf-climate-change-hitting-arctic-faster-harder/
and
http://www.elrst.com/2008/04/07/disintegration-of-an-antartic-ice-shelf/
What do you think ?
Thanks Edouard, for all your good work. Absolutely, there is no time to waste. The Earth temperature may be about to plateau for the next ten years, but meanwhile, CO2 levels keep on rising, way past the tipping point . . .
You’re welcome Marguerite, my pleasure to share the data I come across during my own blogging.
I may have the impression to repeat myself, but you are doing a great job here disseminating your own data…
Keep up the good work, and many thanks for writing !
Actually, the quote doesn’t mean what it reads as.
See climate progress‘s explanation.
The explanation, too, is a bit muddled. This is why BSc students should have to do some Arts subjects so that they learn to express themselves clearly.
Agree!
[…] I was stating on Lamarguerite’s blog which brought me the news : it is a chance for us to do our best to mitigate climate change during […]
Here’s what I think (since everyone else is doing that, too). I think the earth will get very hot when the sun goes supernova, then it will get very cold when the sun becomes a white dwarf. Until then, I’m going to put on my coat when I feel chilly, and strip down to a culturally-acceptable level when I feel warm. Oh yeah, and drink plenty of water. The power is not going to go out in my lifetime because the surface temperature might rise a whole Kelvin – which is the entire vertical axis of your graph.
There is nothing to guarantee that your graph will continue the trend. Check this out (your pic is there)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record
Scroll down to the “The long term ice core record: the last 800,000 years”…looks like we’re due for a fall.
You were saying something about “facts”. Please use more than one graph.