‘The Olduvai theory and catastrophic consequences‘, a paper by James Leigh in Energy Bulletin, paints a very scary picture of what awaits us if we do nothing to prepare for the times ahead.
Will be wise enough and follow James Leigh‘s recommendation?
. . . to cooperatively take urgent steps to ameliorate this looming situation and prepare for how we will live in a post-energy world and its civilization. A whole new sustainable, localized and agricultural based civilization is needed; with a new mindset of cooperation and care, and harmonious social behavior, along with alternative fuels for a less fuel-hungry society.
Thanks to Gary Peters for tipping me on this paper.
La Marguerite 
There’s a real challenge here for people as this is saying that we need to prepare for a “de-industrialisation”, either willingly by reducing consumption and using alternative technologies (I mean renewables NOT biofuels), or have it forced upon us when the lights go out.
Sure people are starting to catch on to the green agenda, but how far are we willing to change our dependence on oil when it becomes inconvenient for us?
The UK government is due to announce a £100 billion investment into renewable energy to try and cut down the country’s reliance on oil. As an island the UK has a more finite supply of fossil fuels and so are dependent on other countries to provide fuel. This is obviously a security threat as well as being harmful to the environment.
Hopefully the investment will encourage people to use alternative energy sources in their homes. This will only happen if the government gives grants to supplement the initial cost of setting up solar panels, turbines, etc.
Ethical and Green
http://www.ethicalandgreen.com
At first glance, this article seems not to distinguish between oil (mainly used for transportation) and the many other energy sources which are used for electricity. Oil is not used for electricity generation, so blackouts will not happen. Peak coal is a whole different discussion.
The solution to peak oil is simple: Stop driving. Just do it. Go live closer to work, or work from home. It’s possible. We don’t do this now, because we don’t have to. Once people can’t pay for goods transported all over the world, sometimes in circles, producers, distributors and retailers will develop alternative supply chains. Again, we don’t do this now, because we don’t have to.
Relocalization will happen spontaneously as a function of oil price. I don’t consider relocalization catastrophic. We want it. It reduces carbon emissions.
On second look, I can hardly believe it. This article does not mention coal once, but talks about oil and electricity. These two are only related in the sense that they both have to do with energy. It’s true, coal has to be mined and transported, but I think we’ll be fine for that matter for some time. And otherwise, we’d still have coal to liquid…
I must add: Stop flying.
That’s not catastrophic either.
The paper’s been around for years, and is not realistic. What Meryn pointed out, that oil is not usually used for electricity, is only part of it. Even where electricity does come from oil, when oil’s short they cut down on transport not electricity – Cuba used 2/3 its oil for electricity, 1/3 for transport, so when they had a 20% drop in supply, transport lost out.
And look, Cuba’s not in the Dark Ages, despite being twenty years into their “slide”. In fact they have better longevity, infant and maternal mortality and literacy than the US.
The thing is overly-focused on oil. It assumes that oil is the only resource of consequence, and that changes are impossible.
If using no oil means “the Dark Ages”, we have to wonder how the Industrial Revolution happened.
When countries face shortages of things they introduce measures to mitigate it – rationing and so on. And they try to find alternative ways of getting the same thing.
If people see a cliff coming, they don’t just walk off it.
Kyle, Meryn, thanks for your corrections, and for making the distinction between peak oil, and the limits on electricity generation that come from greenhouse gas emissions limits.
I am taking in your comments and will revise post accordingly.
The main point, remains however, that we are facing some limits, in terms of our overall energy supply, that we will have to take drastic measures, very soon, or else, we may get to live out Holmgren’s bleakest energy scenarios:
https://lamarguerite.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/david-holmgrens-energy-future-scenarios/
Kyle, I agree with you that the graph has an inherent flow, in the sense that the mere fact of experiencing even a slight slide will cause self-adjusting behaviors, as currently demonstrated by the $4 a gallon effect. Human beings may be slow to move, in the absence of proper clues, but once these are in place, our self-preservation takes over. There is still the issue of timing, that is critical, and of whether we will move fast enough to avoid a tipping point. Some, as James Hansen, and also Bill McKibben, are quite alarmist in that respect:
https://lamarguerite.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/special-fossil-fuel-interests-blocking-progress-on-climate/
https://lamarguerite.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/will-you-go-350-with-bill-mckibben/
I think the risk of a tipping point in climate is far more important to consider than energy reserves. Energy reserves are quite predictable. Climate may give us a huge surprise. That’s why I nowadays almost tend to ignore peak oil and coal. We can’t burn it all up, it’s far too risky.
I’m just glad peak oil exist, because it gives us some extra market incentives.
The work of Richard C. Duncan is second to none. Thanks for featuring this scientist’s great work regarding peak oil.
Steve, can you explain what exactly will cause the blackouts in “Olduvai Theory”? Or doesn’t he expect blackouts?
I’ve been a bit busy recently, but as our Gov. in California says, “I’ll be back.”
I’ll just mention one thing for now: Times are quite interesting these days, and (at least) more direct and frequent public dialogue is taking place regarding the big issue. It’s interesting, though: Orwell would find the situation quite familiar when, during the same week and in the same major newspaper, you read that major scientific organizations throughout the world say that we need to do something soon to address global warming, while (at the same time) we read that our President’s administration refuses to read E.P.A. documents, and we see that one of the largest companies on the planet runs huge advertorials saying that we need more and more oil. I hope the evening comedy folks are covering this well. I haven’t been able to watch recently.
Cheers to all,
Jeff
Thanks for making time for us Jeff! Hope you have been busy with doing good things . . .
I and I believe most Americans have pretty much given up on our President. Let us turn our attention elsewhere, to initiatives that truly matter.
Have also noticed big Exxon spreads in NT Times. Greenwashing in all its splendor. They nearly got me convinced . . . When are the FTC green advertising guidelines when we need them?
Meryn, the blackouts are supposedly caused by the lack of oil because oil’s required for the vehicles which maintain power lines, bring coal to power stations, and so on. Part of the system gets run down, and the system collapses.
The problem with that idea is that it assumes, as I said, that we stumble blindly towards the cliff, that if fuel is short we just let it be short and continue happily burning it whenever we can, who gets to burn it? Well, we let the market decide, who pays the most and buys first wins.
Whereas in fact what we see when a country suffers fuel shortages is that the government steps in and priorities are set, to ensure that maintenance vehicles, fire brigade, police and so on can still get around. SUVs can’t get diesel, but diesel trains carrying people and freight still can.
So we end up with a lot of disruption and trouble, but we don’t have rolling blackouts, we survive.
Don’t get me wrong – our electrical grids are fragile systems, they require good management to work, and are easy to fuck up. We’ve done it across the West many times, and they regularly fail in the Third World. But it’s largely because of poor management. For example in Auckland they had four main power lines going into the city, the management said, “aha, let’s save money by not maintaining them.”
Then one line got worn out and failed.
“That’s alright,” said the management, ignoring the engineers, “we’ll just put all the power through the other three!”
So a second failed, “Just put it through the other two!”
Then a third, then the whole city had a blackout.
Nothing about peak oil makes that stuff more or less likely.
Again, if oil is necessary to an industrial society, how did we ever enter the industrial revolution? That was begun with water, then they brought in wood, and finally coal and gas. Oil’s a late arriver. Oil’s only needed for lots of personal transport and cheap plastic crap.
Greetings,
When we run out of oil we can’t mine coal!!
Or transport it!
So directly and indirectly power plants rely on OIL!
Olduvai is thinkable!!
James Leigh
Wow, so it’s impossible to mine coal without oil?
So, like, how did coal mining happen up till Pennsylvania struck oil in 1859? Did Henry Ford travel back in time with a Model T then there was a big conpspiracy to erase it from history?
Try studying some history, Jimmy.
Good post. I am monitoring this stuff too. Have you heard of my
project about POLAR CITIES for survivors of global warming? I figure
we might need them around 2500 or so, and I have written to Fingar
about this. of course, no reply. But i am sure the USA govt and other
govts are already planning their own polar cities for their own VIPs
and powerful families, leaving the rest of us out in the cold, well,
it won’t be cold, it will be HOT. 500 years.
Wonder if you can take a look at my images, created by Deng Cheng Hong
in Taiwan, and Lovelock has seen them and approves of them and told me
IT MAY VERY WELL HAPPEN AND SOON.
Maybe you can blog one day on polar cities? Please do. Pro or con. I
am curious to know your POV on all this.
As for Fingar’s testimoney, he did not mention POLAR CITIES at all,
but you can bet the Homeland Sec dept already has plans in place for
polar cities in Alaska — Juneau, Fairbanks, Anchroage, Nome….
Email me offline if want to chat: this is now my life’s work. DANNY
BLOOM, Tufts 1971
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com
Danny Bloom | Homepage | 06.29.08 – 2:32 am | #
—
POLAR CITIES BLUEPRINTS:
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com
I was saying in the article that there is no chance to mine coal in enough quantity, and transport these quantities without oil fired machinery. Mining coal with picks and hauling it with mules can hardly keep the present civilization of 300 million in the USA supplied with electricity, and going at its present level. Olduvai may yet ride into town and we have been warned of his arrival for over a decade!!
Any new society will surely be based on care on concern, not aggression and conflict!!
The future problem is one of falling energy supplies, collapsing economies and infrastructures, civil strife, geopolitical challenges and civilization clash! The basic problem is one of human greed and lack of cooperation.
Kiashu, surely you would agree the way ahead in any new civilization is through cooperation and fellowship, not ridicule and aggression
My last paragrphs in the paper http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45518 sum up the challenge:
” … critical levels of human suffering, accruing from this worsened state of affairs, could massively frustrate the world at the geopolitical level, leading to, not only heated political engagement, but also military confrontation.
“The post-2012 era of Olduvai has no precedent in history, and therefore the world will soon be entering totally uncharted waters. For sure nations and groups of nations will attempt to protect and maintain their economic development and living standard.
“However, what we really need is for us all to cooperatively take urgent steps to ameliorate this looming situation and prepare for how we will live in a post-energy world and its civilization. A whole new sustainable, localized and agricultural based civilization is needed; with a new mindset of cooperation and care, and harmonious social behavior, along with alternative fuels for a less fuel-hungry society. And that is the topic of another paper.”
James Leigh
James, thanks for jumping in this discussion. I greatly appreciate your perspective, and your clarification is most helpful. I think we all agree that the times ahead are going to be rough, and we better face reality ASAP. Also, we know that there is much that we don’t know yet, and that to me is probably the scariest part. Even the most well thought out scenarios can only take into account so many parameters, . . .
For sure there are unseen dimensions to influence any future scenarios. The can be good or bad!!